Granger predictability of real oil prices by US money and inflation in Markov-switching regimes” has been published online in Eurasian Economic Review, Open Acces

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Present value theory linking oil prices to money growth and inflation rates: The model presented here is a theoretical asset pricing model for oil prices from Gillman and Nakov (2009). It shows that the capital in the oil sector demands that the USD oil price follow changes in the discount factor which is the nominal interest rate. The model includes how the nominal interest rate can be written in terms of the inflation rate and also the money supply growth rate.

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